Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
